Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset: 9.86M ARMs by State (2026)

Key findings (DealMachine ARM Exposure Index, October 2026)

• 9,864,865 U.S. properties carry at least one adjustable-rate mortgage, according to DealMachine parcel data.
• 1,489,710 ARM owners (15%) have less than 20% equity.
• California has the most ARM properties (1,262,699). Connecticut has the highest share (12.47% of parcels).
• 56% of ARM holders still have 50%+ equity, and only 0.06% are in pre-foreclosure.

9,864,865 properties in the U.S. carry at least one adjustable-rate mortgage. That's the headline number from the DealMachine ARM Exposure Index. Many of those loans were written when rates were near historic lows, and their fixed periods are running out.

When an ARM resets, the borrower gets a letter with a new rate and a new payment. For most owners, that payment goes up.

Here's the number I'd focus on. 1,489,710 of those owners have less than 20% equity. They have the fewest options when the payment changes.

How We Counted

The ARM Exposure Index is a full count, not a sample. We matched recorded mortgage documents to county parcel records for every property in our database.

• ARM property: at least one open recorded loan on the property is flagged as adjustable-rate. Here's how fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgages compare.
• Share of parcels: ARM properties divided by all parcels in the state. This adjusts for state size.
• Overlaps: standard DealMachine filters for estimated equity, senior owner, absentee owner, and pre-foreclosure.

One limit to be clear about. County records show the loan terms at origination, not the reset date. This index shows where ARMs are concentrated, not which loan resets next month.

National totals and overlaps come from our initial pull. State figures were recounted on October 6, 2026, and the recount's national sum landed within 0.07% of the original.

Which States Have the Most Adjustable Rate Mortgages

Ranked by total count.

Rank	State	Properties with an ARM	Share of parcels
1	California	1,262,699	10.52%
2	Florida	715,630	6.64%
3	Pennsylvania	519,212	8.65%
4	North Carolina	504,298	8.59%
5	Ohio	459,797	7.15%
6	Virginia	456,268	11.55%
7	Texas	439,322	3.13%
8	Illinois	429,111	7.33%

These eight states hold 4.79 million ARM properties, or 49% of the national total. California alone accounts for 12.8%. The full 50-state index follows below.

ARMs follow high home prices

By share, Connecticut leads at 12.47%, roughly 1 in every 8 parcels. It's followed by D.C. (11.83%), Virginia (11.55%), California (10.52%), Hawaii (10.46%), Utah (10.33%), and Washington (10.09%).

Expensive housing is the common thread. On a large loan, a lower starting rate saves real money every month. The tradeoff is that the savings expire.

Texas is the outlier

Texas ranks 7th by count, but only 3.13% of its parcels have an ARM. California's rate is more than 3 times higher. Texas makes the list because it's big, not because owners lean on ARMs.

The lowest shares in the country are Mississippi (1.84%) and South Dakota (1.13%). Connecticut's rate is 11 times South Dakota's. Smaller loans make the fixed-rate premium easier to accept.

The full ARM Exposure Index

Here's every state, ranked by share of parcels. Nationally, 6.38% of parcels carry an ARM. 21 states and D.C. sit above that line. If your state is in the top half of this list, ARM holders are a list worth building.

Rank	State	Properties with an ARM	Share of parcels
1	Connecticut	167,425	12.47%
2	District of Columbia	25,556	11.83%
3	Virginia	456,268	11.55%
4	California	1,262,699	10.52%
5	Hawaii	58,809	10.46%
6	Utah	141,612	10.33%
7	Washington	306,191	10.09%
8	Colorado	252,441	9.25%
9	Maryland	211,076	8.80%
10	Pennsylvania	519,212	8.65%
11	North Carolina	504,298	8.59%
12	Nevada	105,267	8.28%
13	Massachusetts	205,992	8.09%
14	Illinois	429,111	7.33%
15	Ohio	459,797	7.15%
16	New Hampshire	48,566	6.85%
17	Oregon	117,936	6.73%
18	Idaho	76,035	6.72%
19	New Jersey	213,245	6.71%
20	Kentucky	163,831	6.68%
21	Florida	715,630	6.64%
22	Alaska	20,259	6.52%
23	Delaware	33,025	6.36%
24	Wisconsin	210,977	6.15%
25	Arizona	183,650	6.07%
26	New York	374,053	5.93%
27	Missouri	193,107	5.81%
28	Michigan	309,029	5.74%
29	Tennessee	202,776	5.62%
30	Indiana	197,178	5.40%
31	Oklahoma	115,089	5.22%
32	South Carolina	162,958	5.10%
33	Minnesota	160,180	5.09%
34	Montana	46,102	5.05%
35	Maine	45,318	4.94%
36	Rhode Island	20,695	4.90%
37	North Dakota	29,380	4.62%
38	Iowa	112,515	4.54%
39	Wyoming	13,290	3.86%
40	Kansas	61,456	3.78%
41	Nebraska	37,119	3.41%
42	West Virginia	44,123	3.22%
43	Alabama	99,816	3.19%
44	Texas	439,322	3.13%
45	New Mexico	45,468	3.11%
46	Georgia	122,957	2.53%
47	Louisiana	59,615	2.35%
48	Arkansas	47,993	2.09%
49	Mississippi	35,707	1.84%
50	South Dakota	7,441	1.13%
N/A*	Vermont	N/A*	N/A*

*Vermont's recorded mortgages don't include a rate type in our data, so it isn't ranked.

The Equity and Senior Overlaps

The ranking shows where the volume is. The overlaps show who is under pressure.

ARM properties that are also…	Count	Share
50%+ equity	5,513,104	56%
Senior-owned	2,946,213	30%
Absentee-owned	2,338,340	24%
Under 20% equity	1,489,710	15%
In pre-foreclosure	5,795	0.06%

Pressured, not trapped

56% of ARM holders still have at least half their home's value in equity. Most of these owners aren't in trouble. They face a higher payment, but they can refinance, sell, or keep paying. See our Deep Equity Property Index for more on this group.

Let me give you a simple example. A $350,000 7/1 ARM taken out in 2019 at 3.5% has a principal and interest payment of about $1,572. Seven years later the balance is roughly $297,700. If the rate resets to 6.5%, the new payment is about $2,081. That's $509 more per month, or about $6,100 a year.

An owner with 50% equity can absorb that, refinance, or sell. An owner with 15% equity struggles to do any of the three.

The thin-equity group

1,489,710 ARM owners have less than 20% equity. Selling through an agent costs 6% to 8% once you add commissions and closing costs. A refinance usually needs at least 20% equity to avoid mortgage insurance. These owners are short on room either way.

That's why this group is a natural fit for subject-to financing and other creative-finance offers. You aren't offering a big discount. You're offering a way out that doesn't require a new loan or a big check at closing.

The senior group

2,946,213 ARM properties are owned by seniors. Many are on fixed incomes, where a $400 or $500 increase matters. Our senior homeowner leads by state breakdown covers how to work this segment respectfully.

Pre-foreclosure is still rare

Only 5,795 ARM properties (0.06%) are in pre-foreclosure. Higher payments haven't caused a wave of defaults, and I wouldn't market as if they have. If distress is your focus, our pre-foreclosure properties by state report is the better list.

Who This Is For

• Creative-finance buyers: the thin-equity group is your core list.
• Wholesalers and flippers: the 50%+ equity group has room for a discount.
• Landlord buyers: 2.3 million ARM properties are absentee-owned, and a higher payment cuts into rental cash flow.

How to Market to ARM Holders Without Fear-Mongering

Tone matters more here than with most lists. These owners haven't missed a payment.

1. Don't predict their rate. You don't know their reset date or caps. "Your payment is about to jump" is a guess, and owners can tell.
2. Lead with options. "If your payment changes, here are three ways to handle it" lands better than any warning.
3. Segment by equity first. High-equity owners want a clean sale. Thin-equity owners want relief. Send them different letters.
4. Start with mail. Skip trace the list, then follow Do Not Call and TCPA rules for calls and texts.
5. Follow up. Most owners won't act until they see the new payment, so a 6 to 12 month mail sequence keeps you in front of them.

Find ARM Owners With Thin Equity in Your County

The national number is 1.49 million. The number that matters is the one in your market. Filter for adjustable-rate mortgages plus under 20% equity in DealMachine to find sellers facing payment shock.

Frequently Asked Questions