Why Is Housing Inventory So Low? What 2026 Mortgages Show

How We Measured This

This analysis uses recorded first mortgages in DealMachine's property data, split into two groups:

• 2026 loans: first mortgages recorded so far in 2026 (4,759,590 loans).
• Loans since 2010: first mortgages recorded from 2010 on (59,672,845 loans).

The rate is the one stated on the county mortgage document. For adjustable-rate loans, that's the starting rate. Records under 1% were excluded as likely data errors. "Absentee-owned" means the owner's mailing address doesn't match the property, which usually points to a landlord.

Why start at 2010? Old, paid-off loans can linger in county records. Across all years, more than half of the 3.38 million loans at 7%+ were recorded before 2010. Removing them gave a cleaner picture, and the landlord gap got wider.

These figures cover recorded first mortgages, not every homeowner in the country. National market shares in this post come from the FHFA.

The Lock-In Is Breaking

Nearly every new mortgage in 2026 lands in one narrow band.

86.1% of loans recorded this year sit between 6% and 7%. Only 0.9% are under 4%. For new borrowers, the sub-4% mortgage is close to gone.

Here's the part that matters. Every time a locked-in owner sells or refinances, a sub-4% loan disappears, and a 6–7% loan replaces it. Almost nothing new is joining the low-rate group, so it can only shrink.

It's shrinking slowly. Wolf Street describes the thaw as happening "at a snail's pace." But the direction is clear, and the lock-in effect weakens a little more every month that rates stay above 6%.

Who Pays the Most: Landlords at 7%+

Among loans recorded since 2010, 36.8% of loans at 7% or higher belong to absentee owners. For loans under 4%, it's 17.7%. That makes a high-rate loan 2.1 times as likely to be held by a landlord.

This is normal when you think it through. Loans on investment properties usually carry higher rates than loans on a primary home. Many investors also bought or refinanced in 2023 and 2024, when average 30-year rates came close to 8%.

The result is 570,963 absentee-owned properties with a first mortgage at 7% or higher. If you're also tracking adjustable-rate loans, our ARM reset index by state covers that group.

What This Means for Investors

The data points to two lists, each with its own approach.

List 1: Absentee owners at 7%+

These are landlords under payment pressure. A $250,000 rental loan at 7.5% costs about $1,748 a month in principal and interest, before taxes, insurance, and repairs. If rents in the area have flattened, that property may lose money every month.

They also have less emotional attachment to the home, which makes them the most likely sellers in this data. Lead with a clean offer and an easy exit. Our guide to absentee owner lists covers how to work them.

List 2: Owners under 4%

These owners won't sell to get a better rate. But some still need to sell because of a move, a divorce, or a repair they can't afford. That's where subject to real estate deals come in. You take over the deed and keep paying the seller's existing low-rate loan. Here's a full breakdown of buying subject to a mortgage.

The key takeaway: a 3% loan is an asset to a buyer, even when it traps the seller. Compare subject-to vs. assuming a mortgage, or look at other creative financing strategies.

How to Build Both Lists in DealMachine

Both lists take a few minutes in DealMachine's list builder. Here's the process.

1. Pick your market by county, city, or ZIP code.
2. Add the 1st Mortgage Interest Rate filter. Set it to 7% or higher for List 1. For List 2, set it from 1% to under 4%.
3. Add 1st Mortgage Recording Date and set it to 2010 or later. This removes old loans that may already be paid off.
4. For List 1, turn on Absentee Owned. For List 2, it's optional.
5. Skip trace the owners and start your outreach.

One tip for List 2: add an equity filter. Subject-to deals tend to work best when the owner has little equity, because there's less cash needed to close the gap.

Find the 570K+ landlords paying 7%+ on homes they don't live in, and reach them before they list. Build your list in DealMachine.

Frequently Asked Questions